Crypto Markets Year-End Selling as Sentiment Stabilizes

Key Takeaways

• Crypto markets Year-end profit-taking drove sharp volatility, but Bitcoin held above $85K and stabilized near $88.8K.
• Market cap stayed near $3T as ETF activity and corporate buying absorbed sell pressure.
• Sentiment rebounded from extreme fear, with Fear & Greed rising to 29 while caution remained dominant.
• Bitcoin dominance strengthened, keeping the market in clear Bitcoin Season.
• Structural support from regulation, institutional accumulation, and stablecoin growth remained intact.

Weekly recap December 15–22, 2025 stretch delivered sharp volatility as year-end profit-taking collided with uneven macro signals and risk-off pressure from tech equities. Bitcoin swung aggressively, sliding toward $85,000 before rebounding near $92,000, then stabilizing after heavy liquidations. Altcoins showed selective strength as ETF activity stayed active rather than broad. Total market cap held near $3 trillion, while 24-hour volume reached $80.75 billion. Sentiment lifted slightly from deep fear, signaling durability even as selling pressure tested market structure.

Image 1: The Crypto Market Overview dashboard from CoinMarketCap highlights late-week stabilization, with total market cap near $3T, trading volume at $80.75B, and mixed price action across majors. Bitcoin trades around $88,829.93 (+0.84%), Ethereum at $3,030.06 (+1.86%), BNB at $857.73 (+0.94%), Solana at $126.40 (+0.87%), and XRP at $1.9175 (-0.23%). The market cap curve shows a rebound from mid-month drawdowns toward prior levels near $3.2T.

Price Updates for Major Coins

• Bitcoin (BTC): Saw sharp swings, sliding toward $85,000–$86,000 during liquidation-driven selloffs, then rebounding above $88,000. Weekly results show mild losses near -2% by week’s end.
• Ethereum (ETH): Outperformed peers, pushing toward $3,030, supported by on-chain momentum and targeted ETF demand.
• Solana (SOL): Held range near $126, backed by steady, smaller-scale ETF inflows.
• XRP: Consolidated around $1.92, pressured by broad market softness yet supported by regulatory progress.
• BNB: Remained stable near $858, reflecting consistent strength across the Binance ecosystem.
   

Market Overview: Sentiment Shifts from Extreme Fear

Image 2: The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads 29 (Fear), marking a rebound from earlier lows. Recent prints show 28 yesterday, 24 last week, and 10 last month, which reflected extreme fear. The yearly peak reached 76 in May 2025, while the lowest point hit 10 in November 2025. The chart layers Bitcoin price and trading volume, showing sentiment tracking closely with the latest volatility spikes.

Image 3: The CMC Altcoin Season Index sits at 17/100, confirming firm Bitcoin Season despite a slight pullback. The 90-day view highlights renewed Bitcoin dominance. Recent readings show 17 yesterday, 22 last week, and 25 last month. Historical markers include a yearly high near 78 during September 2025 and a yearly low near 12 in April 2025.

These indicators signal sustained caution across the market, while gradual improvement in sentiment suggests stabilization rather than broad risk appetite.

Technical Breakdowns and Outlook

Bitcoin trades near $88,847 on the 1-hour chart, up 0.09%, locked in a tight consolidation inside the $85,000–$94,000 range that has capped price for weeks. Structure holds above $85,000, with higher lows hinting at early accumulation, yet confirmation remains absent. Heavy activity sits between $88,000–$90,000, showing institutional interest alongside distribution. Price stays below the 50 and 200 MAs, both sloping down. RSI near 54 signals balance, not momentum. Volatility remains elevated as Bollinger Bands stay wide, with sell-side volume stronger than bounce volume.

Key levels are clear. Above $92,000 opens $94,000–$96,000. Below $85,000 risks $83,000, then $80,000. Bias stays neutral to mildly constructive while $85,000 holds, supported by miner accumulation, renewed ETF inflows, and resilient long-term holder supply above 70%. Macro tailwinds from a softer dollar and future rate-cut expectations help, though geopolitics and regulation still cap risk appetite. Correlation with tech keeps direction tied to liquidity.

Near-term path favors range trade between $85,000–$92,000 over the next 1–2 weeks unless volume confirms a break. Longs near $87,000 require tight size and stops below $84,000. Shorts near $92,000 offer cleaner structure with stops above $94,000. Wait for volume alignment. Patience wins in this tape.

Ethereum trades near $3,023, up 0.15%, stabilizing after repeated defenses around $3,020. Price remains boxed inside a tight $3,020–$3,050 range. Higher lows from the $3,000 base hint at early accumulation, yet conviction stays thin. Activity clusters between $3,020–$3,040, showing institutional engagement alongside distribution. Price sits below the 50 and 200 MAs, both sloping down. RSI near 48 signals balance, not momentum. Volatility stays elevated as Bollinger Bands remain wide and bounce volume fades faster than sell pressure.

Key levels define the trade. Above $3,035 opens $3,070–$3,100. Below $3,020 risks $3,000, then $2,950. Bias stays neutral to cautiously constructive, stronger than BTC, anchored by fundamentals. Exchange supply sits at a record low 8.7%, staking exceeds 29M ETH, and the Fusaka upgrade improves fees and scalability. Large wallets add on pullbacks, reinforcing accumulation. Macro support builds from a softer dollar and 2026 rate-cut expectations, while geopolitics and tech correlation cap upside without volume confirmation.

Near-term path favors range trade for 1–2 days. Longs near $3,025 require tight size and stops below $2,980. Shorts near $3,035 offer cleaner structure with stops above $3,060. Wait for volume to lead. Let price decide before committing.

Solana trades near $126.25, up 0.47%, holding a tight consolidation inside the $120–$140 range that has framed price for weeks. Structure shows modest higher lows from $120, hinting at early accumulation, yet conviction remains thin. Heavy activity sits between $125–$130, reflecting institutional participation alongside distribution. Price stays below the 50 and 200 MAs, both sloping down. RSI near 42 signals balance without momentum. Volatility remains elevated as Bollinger Bands stay wide and sell-side volume outweighs bounce volume.

Key levels lead. Above $128 opens $135–$140. Below $120 risks $115, then $110. Bias stays neutral with a cautious positive tilt while $120 holds, supported by fundamentals. DeFi TVL stabilizes near $13B, active users exceed 1M, ETF inflows resume via Franklin Templeton, and the Alpenglow upgrade targets a 40% fee cut. Macro tailwinds from a softer dollar and 2026 rate-cut expectations help, though geopolitics and altcoin sentiment cap upside without volume confirmation.

Near term favors range trade for 1–2 days. Longs near $123 need tight size and stops below $118. Shorts near $128 offer cleaner structure with stops above $135. Wait for volume to confirm. Patience is the edge.

XRP trades near $1.9168, up 0.46%, holding a tight consolidation after repeated defenses at $1.91. Price remains boxed inside $1.91–$1.95. Higher lows from $1.90 hint at early accumulation, yet conviction stays thin. Heavy activity between $1.91–$1.94 shows institutional interest alongside distribution. Price sits below the 50 and 200 MAs, both sloping down. RSI near 42 signals balance without momentum. Volatility stays elevated as Bollinger Bands remain wide and sell-side volume outweighs bounce volume.

Key levels are clean. Above $1.943 opens $1.97–$2.00. Below $1.91 risks $1.90, then $1.85. Bias stays neutral with a cautious positive tilt, stronger than BTC or ETH, backed by fundamentals. ETF AUM nears $1B, SWIFT pilots totaling $5T progress, ODL volume holds near $1.3B, and regulatory clarity improves cross-border use. Macro support builds from a softer dollar and 2026 rate-cut expectations, while geopolitics cap upside without volume confirmation.

Near term favors range trade for 1–2 days. Longs near $1.92 need tight size and stops below $1.88. Shorts near $1.943 offer cleaner structure with stops above $1.97. Wait for a decisive break. Volume must lead.

Macroeconomic Backdrop: CPI Surprise and Labor Dynamics

The week featured a surprising US CPI drop to 2.7% (from 3.0%), with core at 2.6%, initially sparking green screens before volatility resumed amid doubts over data reliability (government shutdown delays, housing estimates). Markets questioned sustainability, viewing it as potential one-off rather than trend. Labor data showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, nonfarm payrolls +64k (below prior), signaling cooling without alarm—supporting Fed patience into 2026.

Broader pressures included yen carry trade concerns (BOJ signals), year-end fund rebalancing (Nasdaq +20% YTD driving profit-taking), and tariff revenue (> $200B) funding fiscal expansions like the Big Beautiful Bill (+$3.4T deficit over 10 years). Risk assets correlated, amplifying BTC/tech declines.

Institutional Inflows: Mixed ETF Flows with Corporate Accumulation

ETF activity volatile: BTC spot ETFs saw outflows mid-week (~$161M-$357M days) flipping to inflows (~$457M one session); ETH outflows persistent (~$96M-$224M); SOL/XRP small inflows ($11M-$35M). Corporate treasuries countered: MicroStrategy (Strategy) added aggressively, holdings ~671k BTC (~3.2% supply); other firms +10k+ BTC net. MSCI retained Strategy in Nasdaq 100, averting sales.

Other: Banks expanded access (Interactive Brokers stablecoin funding, PNC/Vanguard crypto trading); Brazil’s Itaú Bank recommends 1-3% BTC allocation from 2026.

Policy Wins: Regulatory Progress Accelerates

Momentum built: OCC approved major firms (Ripple, Circle etc.) for national trust banks; SEC custody guidance clarified self-custody; tokenized pilots advanced. Global: Pakistan-Binance MoU for $2B asset tokenization; UK stablecoin/crypto regulation from 2027; Ripple RLUSD multi-chain expansion.

Trump-era signals (GENIUS/CLARITY Acts pending) and commissioner shifts bolster pro-innovation shift.

Specific Themes: Bitcoin Cycle Evolution and Ethereum Strength

Bitcoin cycle debate intensified: Traditional 4-year pattern questioned (no blow-off top, institutional tempering); yet ETF absorption (>100% new supply) and reduced volatility support elongated bull. Forecasts mixed—some see 2026 consolidation without aggressive cuts, others new highs on clarity.

Ethereum showed relative resilience: Multi-chain stablecoins, MetaMask Bitcoin integration, on-chain vaults growth position for resurgence amid lower fees/upgrades.

Other News: Volatility and Broader Developments

Sharp BTC moves triggered bi-directional liquidations; option hedging capped upside near $90k. Notable: Tether-Juventus stake; Visa stablecoin consulting; stablecoin payments expansion (YouTube PYUSD, UAE AE Coin).

Conclusion: Consolidation with Underlying Strength

The weekDecember 15–22, 2025 highlighted crypto’s tight link to macro risk. Year-end selling, CPI uncertainty, and softer labor data fueled volatility and liquidations. Still, corporate buying and ETF activity absorbed pressure. Bitcoin held near $88,800, total market cap steadied around $3T, Fear & Greed ticked up to 29, and Bitcoin dominance stayed firm.

Structural support remains intact. Regulatory progress continues. Institutional accumulation persists, led by Strategy near 671k BTC. Stablecoin growth adds liquidity depth. The outlook stays cautiously optimistic. Extreme fear often precedes reversals, while clearer policy and improving liquidity set the stage for higher levels into 2026.

Key Guidance: Dip-buy BTC
ETH selectively; tight stops in holiday liquidity; monitor jobs/inflation, ETF trends for breakout signals. Patience positions for cycle extension.