Crypto Recap Final Week 2025: Holiday Rebound Lifts Bitcoin

Key takeaway: 

• Crypto recap final week 2025: Bitcoin closed near $89,900 with a +2.6% holiday rebound, signaling late-year stabilization
• Total crypto market cap held around $3.04T as year-end selling pressure faded
• Fear & Greed Index climbed to 30, showing sentiment recovery from deep fear
• ETF demand and regulatory progress continued to support market structure despite soft 2025 performance
• 2026 outlook remains constructive, with BTC targets near $143,000 driven by fiscal and liquidity tailwinds
• Key risks persist from high debt levels and a cooling labor market

Crypto recap final week 2025 marked a modest holiday rebound. Bitcoin surged to $89,914.54, leading gains across major assets as sentiment lifted out of deep fear. Total market capitalization reached $3.04 trillion, with 24-hour volume at $77.29 billion, reflecting renewed positioning in thin year-end liquidity despite a weak overall year for price performance.

Image 1: The Crypto Market Overview dashboard from CoinMarketCap reflects late-year recovery. Total market cap stands at $3.04T with 24-hour volume at $77.29B. Major assets moved higher, led by Bitcoin at $89,914.54 (+2.62%), Ethereum at $3,034.82 (+3.32%), BNB at $864.39 (+2.59%), Solana at $127.68 (+3.09%), and XRP at $1.8993 (+1.43%). The market cap curve shows stabilization followed by upward momentum from mid-December lows.

Price Updates for Major Coins

• Bitcoin (BTC) – Extended its rebound to the $89,900–$90,120 zone, delivering a ~2.6–3% weekly gain after recovering from $87,000 support.
• Ethereum (ETH) – Led performance, climbing to $3,034 (+3.3%) on improved on-chain efficiency and selective capital inflows.
• Solana (SOL) – Recovered to $127.68 (+3.1%), holding strength despite ongoing ecosystem pressure.
• XRP – Advanced to $1.8993 (+1.4%), supported by steady ETF participation.
• BNB – Rose to $864.39 (+2.6%), maintaining stable price structure.

Market Overview: Sentiment Improves Slightly

Image 2: The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index ticks up to 30, still in Fear territory. Sentiment shows gradual improvement from recent lows, with readings at 29 yesterday, 29 last week, and 20 last month. The yearly peak reached 76 in May 2025, while the deepest extreme fear printed at 10 in November 2025. The chart tracks closely with Bitcoin’s recent consolidation and rebound, reinforcing a slow shift away from panic rather than a full risk-on turn.

Image 3: The CMC Altcoin Season Index prints 18/100, firmly signaling Bitcoin Season. Recent values show 19 yesterday, 17 last week, and 22 last month. The yearly high for altcoin season peaked at 78 in September 2025, while the lowest Bitcoin Season reading reached 12 in April 2025. These readings confirm persistent caution across alts, with capital concentration remaining anchored in Bitcoin despite easing fear at the margin.

Technical Breakdowns and Outlook

Bitcoin is trading at $90,121.20 on the 1-hour chart, up 0.15% on the session. Price is consolidating after a brief push above $90,000, which now acts as near-term resistance. This level caps a short-term range between $87,000–$92,000. A clean break above $90,406 can drive momentum toward $92,000 and $94,000. A failure below $87,000 risks a retest of $85,000, then $83,000. Higher lows since $87,000 point to early accumulation, yet confirmation remains absent. Volume clusters between $88,000–$90,000 show institutional engagement alongside potential distribution. On the daily timeframe, price sits below the 50- and 200-period MAs, both sloping down. RSI ~52 signals balance, not momentum. Bollinger Bands stay wide, volatility remains elevated, and bounce volume lags sell-side spikes.

Fundamentals stay firm despite short-term softness. Long-term holders control >70% of supply. Miners continue net accumulation with stable hashrate and revenue. Spot ETF inflows have resumed, reinforcing institutional demand. Network security and liquidity keep improving. Macro support follows a recent Fed cut and a softer dollar, with markets pricing additional easing into early 2026. Headwinds persist from geopolitics, trade friction, and regulatory noise. Correlation with tech keeps near-term direction tied to broader liquidity. A dovish pivot can spark relief, but upside needs on-chain and volume confirmation.

Scenarios narrow to two paths. A break below $87,000 likely accelerates toward $85,000. Holding above $87,000 favors consolidation between $87,000–$90,406 over the next 1–2 days while macro clarity develops. Any move toward $90,406 faces resistance from a declining 50 EMA and weak upside volume. Bias stays neutral to cautiously positive, supported by miner accumulation and ETF demand, conditional on support holding and higher highs forming.

Risk management comes first. Counter-trend longs near $88,500 require small size (1–2%) with stops below $86,000. Trend-following shorts near $90,406 offer cleaner structure with stops above $92,000, avoiding major macro windows. Bitcoin often snaps back after sharp drops, but many fades follow quickly. Respect structure. Let price and volume confirm before committing.

Ethereum is trading at $3,044.36 on the 1-hour chart, up 0.22% on the session. Price is compressing after repeated rejections near $3,044, the upper edge of a short-term range between $3,020–$3,050. A decisive push above $3,070 can open $3,170 and $3,250. A loss below $2,990 exposes $2,950, then $2,900. Higher lows since $2,950 suggest early accumulation, but confirmation is lacking. Volume clusters between $2,920–$2,960 point to institutional interest alongside distribution. On the daily timeframe, price sits below the 50- and 200-period MAs, both angled down. RSI ~48 signals balance without momentum. Bollinger Bands remain wide, volatility stays elevated, and bounce volume trails sell-side spikes.

Fundamentals remain a clear strength. Exchange supply sits at a record low near 8.7%, reducing sell pressure. 29M+ ETH is staked, reinforcing network security and long-term conviction. The Fusaka upgrade is live, cutting fees and improving scalability. Large wallets continue to add on pullbacks, while protocols expand treasuries. Work on gas futures and further upgrades keeps institutional interest engaged. Macro support builds from a softer dollar and expectations for early-2026 rate cuts, though geopolitics and trade friction still cap risk appetite. Tight correlation with tech keeps near-term direction tied to liquidity.

Scenarios narrow quickly. A break below $3,020 likely pulls price toward $3,000. Holding $3,020 favors consolidation between $3,020–$3,057 over the next 1–2 days while macro signals resolve. Any push into $3,057 faces resistance from a declining 50 EMA and weak upside volume. Bias stays neutral to cautiously bullish, stronger than BTC, conditional on support holding and higher highs forming.

Risk management is critical. Counter-trend longs near $3,030 require small size (1–2%) with stops below $2,980. Trend-following shorts near $3,057 offer cleaner structure with stops above $3,080, avoiding major macro windows. Ethereum often snaps back after sharp drops, but many rallies fade fast. Let strength prove itself. Wait for price and volume alignment before committing.

Solana is trading at $128.01 on the 1-hour chart, up 0.23% on the session. Price is grinding higher after repeated tests near $127.50, the upper edge of a short-term range between $127–$130. A clean break above $130 opens $134, then $140. A failure below $127 risks a pullback toward $125, with extension to $120. Higher lows from the $123 base hint at early accumulation, yet confirmation remains absent. Volume concentrates between $125–$127, showing institutional interest mixed with distribution. On the daily timeframe, price sits below the 50- and 200-period MAs, both sloping down. RSI ~48 signals balance without momentum. Bollinger Bands stay wide, volatility remains elevated, and bounce volume continues to lag sell pressure.

Fundamentals stay constructive despite near-term softness. DeFi TVL stabilizes near $13B, confirming ecosystem resilience. Network usage remains strong with 1M+ active users. ETF inflows resume, led by Franklin Templeton, adding structural demand and reinforcing institutional appeal. The Alpenglow upgrade targets a 40% fee reduction, a clear catalyst for developers and users if macro conditions improve. Stablecoin launches such as Evo deepen DeFi rails and strengthen Solana’s layer-1 positioning. Legal overhang persists, with token classification risk and regulatory scrutiny capping sentiment. Macro support builds from a softer dollar and expectations for early-2026 rate cuts, though trade tension and geopolitics still limit risk appetite. Strong correlation with memecoins and retail flows keeps near-term direction tied to broader altcoin mood.

Scenarios narrow quickly. A break below $127 likely pulls price toward $125. Holding $127 favors consolidation between $127–$130 over the next 1–2 days while markets await macro signals. Any push into $130–$130.16 faces resistance from a declining 50 EMA and weak upside volume. Bias stays cautious, with a mild positive lean driven by ETF demand and ecosystem progress, conditional on support holding and higher highs forming.

Risk management remains critical. Counter-trend longs near $128 require small size (1–2%) with stops below $125. Trend-following shorts near $130.16 offer cleaner structure with stops above $132, avoiding major macro events. Solana often delivers sharp rebounds after steep drops, yet many fade fast. Respect uncertainty. Let price, volume, and legal clarity confirm direction before committing.

XRP is trading at $1.9076 on the 1-hour chart, up 0.26% on the session. Price continues a slow grind higher after defending $1.89, a level that has held repeatedly and defines the lower edge of a short-term range between $1.89–$1.92. A break above $1.9180 opens $1.95, then $2.00. A failure below $1.89 risks a slide toward $1.85, with extension to $1.82. Higher lows from the $1.85 base point to early accumulation, yet confirmation remains thin. Volume clusters around $1.86–$1.88, signaling institutional interest alongside ongoing distribution. On the daily timeframe, price sits below the 50- and 200-period MAs, both angled down. RSI ~44 reflects balance without momentum. Bollinger Bands stay wide, volatility remains elevated, and bounce volume continues to trail sell-side pressure.

Fundamentals remain a clear differentiator. ETF inflows approach $1B AUM, confirming strong institutional demand. SWIFT pilots totaling $5T advance, while ODL volume near $1.3B confirms live payment usage. Regulatory clarity across key regions reduces legal risk and reinforces XRP’s compliance-first narrative in cross-border flows. ETF approval rumors add optional upside if confirmed. Macro support builds from a softer dollar and expectations for early-2026 rate cuts, though trade tension and geopolitics still cap risk appetite. Strong linkage to global payment activity keeps near-term direction tied to liquidity and regulatory signals, with rallies requiring volume confirmation.

Scenarios remain tight. A break below $1.89 likely pulls price toward $1.85. Holding $1.89 favors consolidation between $1.89–$1.9180 over the next 1–2 days while markets wait on macro cues. Any push into $1.9180 faces resistance from a declining 50 EMA and weak upside volume. Bias stays mildly bullish, supported by ETF inflows, regulatory progress, and higher lows, conditional on support holding and higher highs forming.

Risk discipline matters. Counter-trend longs near $1.90 require small size (1–2%) with stops below $1.85. Trend-following shorts near $1.9180 offer cleaner structure with stops above $1.95, avoiding major macro events. XRP often snaps sharply after deep pullbacks, yet many moves fade fast. Patience remains the edge. Let policy catalysts and volume confirm direction before committing.

Macroeconomic Backdrop: Strong GDP, Fed Support, and Looming Pressures

US Q3 GDP revised to 4.3% (exceeding 3.2% forecast), driven by consumption, exports, and profits—highlighting resilience but lagging current cooling signals (rising unemployment to 4.6%, weak private hiring). Fed injected ~$7B via repo for year-end liquidity, a technical measure amid bank unrealized losses. Gold hit ATH ~$4,471-$4,513/oz, silver strong.

Student debt crisis (~$1.6T affecting 42M) intensifies into 2026 with resumed garnishments and rejected repayments, potentially curbing consumption. BOJ hiked rates; tariff/inflation dynamics monitored.

Institutional Inflows: Mixed Flows with Retained Strength

BTC/ETH spot ETFs saw outflows (~$142M-$276M sessions for BTC, variable for ETH), attributed to tax harvesting—yet YTD flows remain robust (>95% retained since 2024 launch). Selective alts strong: SOL ~$4-7M, XRP ~$8-44M inflows. Corporates active: MicroStrategy bolstered reserves; Trump Media added BTC.

Wall Street shifts: JPMorgan eyes crypto services; regulatory appointments (pro-crypto CFTC/FDIC heads).

Policy Wins: Framework Momentum Builds

US on track for January 2026 market structure bill; Digital Asset PARITY Act proposals (tax exemptions/deferrals). OCC/SEC clarity advances; global progress (UK, Hong Kong consultations).

Specific Themes: 2025 Reflections and Cycle Evolution

2025 proved disappointing (BTC -5-6% YTD) versus stocks/gold, but institutional/ETF integration transformed dynamics—elongating cycle, tempering volatility. Ethereum resurgence via low fees/upgrades; Solana faces Pump.fun lawsuit scrutiny (insider allegations, $4.4-5.5B retail losses) offsetting tools like Kora.

Other News: Psychology and Developments

Sentiment apathetic (echoing post-FTX 2022); advice emphasizes rebalancing/discipline. Notable: IMF pragmatic on BTC; options expiries; stablecoin expansions.

Conclusion: Consolidation with Underlying Strength

Crypto recap final week 2025 delivered a modest holiday rebound. Bitcoin traded near $89,900, up 2.6%, total market cap reached $3.04T, and Fear & Greed climbed to 30, signaling improved sentiment after weeks of apathy. Structural support stayed intact, with steady ETF flows and ongoing regulatory progress helping offset a disappointing year for prices.

The 2026 outlook remains constructive. Citi projects BTC near $143,000, supported by fis